Burglaries can be disastrous for a business, which is why smart business owners consider the likelihood of a break-in for any prospective storefront, warehouse, or property before moving in.
In the past, several cities in the East Bay had high burglary rates that amounted to considerable risk for business owners and residents alike. Real estate agents guided business owners to safer cities and neighborhoods, even if that real estate came at a significant premium. However, their recommendations should be changing, as East Bay burglary rates have changed dramatically since 2005.
In 2018, every East Bay city had a lower overall burglary rate than the U.S. average. Thisincluded both commercial and residential burglaries. Here’s what you need to know about how each city has changed over time, and how their rates may look in the future, so you can make an informed decision.
The Drop in East Bay Burglaries over Time
| Year | US | Concord | Danville | Richmond | San Ramon | Antioch | Pittsburg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 726.9 | 890.1 | 280.1 | 1,031 | 318 | 721.5 | 726.8 |
| 2006 | 733.1 | 756.7 | 248.6 | 999.9 | 335 | 827.3 | 741.6 |
| 2007 | 726.1 | 667.7 | 192.8 | 1,234 | 385.7 | 1,007 | 713.5 |
| 2008 | 733 | 664.6 | 281.4 | 1,202 | 372 | 916.6 | 694.3 |
| 2009 | 717.7 | 667.5 | 228.6 | 1,449 | 314.1 | 813.9 | 758.6 |
| 2010 | 701 | 755 | 219.3 | 1,470 | 429.9 | 1,064 | 759.9 |
| 2011 | 701.3 | 727.1 | 239.8 | 1,574 | 227.4 | 1,289 | 865.5 |
| 2012 | 672.2 | 662.1 | 218 | 1,445 | 197.3 | 1,658 | 1,142 |
| 2013 | 610.5 | 657.6 | 216.5 | 1,519 | 229.7 | 1,269 | 854.1 |
| 2014 | 537.2 | 656.4 | 247.2 | 863.9 | 278.5 | 1,217 | 844.3 |
| 2015 | 494.7 | 461.3 | 256.8 | 735 | 191.9 | 779.8 | 664.8 |
| 2016 | 468.9 | 401.1 | 151.5 | 581.8 | 182.1 | 679.8 | 479.7 |
| 2017 | 429.7 | 345.2 | 122 | 629.9 | 165.1 | 524.7 | 415.6 |
| 2018 | 376 | 340.8 | 117.3 | 345.1 | 134.5 | 567.5 | 341.7 |
According to FBI statistics, the overall burglary rate per 100,000 people in the United States was 726.9 in 2005. That number dropped steadily over the next several years. In 2018 the burglary rate was almost half of the 2005 number, at 376.
Cities in the East Bay followed a similar trend. Most were just slightly below the U.S. average in 2005, according to City Data. Exceptions included Union City and Hayward, both of which were above the national average, with 868.9 and 809.3 burglaries per 100,000, respectively. By a large margin, the lowest burglary rates were actually reported in San Leandro, with a rate of only 318 per 100k.
Each city has experienced an overall downward trend since 2005. In fact, all now have burglary rates significantly below the new U.S. average of 376 burglaries per 100,000. Dublin, Union City, and Hayward have made the most progress towards stopping burglaries, with a drop of 67, 63 and 59 percent, respectively. With burglary rates more than halved, these cities are now more secure investments from a safety standpoint for businesses, commercial property owners and homeowners.
How East Bay Burglary Rates Compare Now
The latest burglary data reveals that San Leandro is still the safest city in terms of burglaries, with a burglary rate of 134.5 per 100k. That’s almost a third the rate of the United States as a whole.
Next are Dublin, Livermore, Fremont, and Union City, in that order. Hayward remains the least safe Bay Area city for burglaries, but even they have made a lot of progress. From 2005, its burglary rates dropped from 809.3 to 334.6, or 58.7%.
How East Bay Burglaries Will Look in 2021
Will burglary rates continue to drop in the East Bay? It’s an important question for those looking to make a long-term investment. To answer it, we applied Holt’s forecasting model (also known as linear exponential smoothing) to the city of Dublin’s historical data.
| Year | Reported Data | Holt’s Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 456.5 | |
| 2006 | 420.8 | |
| 2007 | 267.4 | 365.732 |
| 2008 | 321.8 | 329.5 |
| 2009 | 372.6 | 331.6 |
| 2010 | 264 | 283.9 |
| 2011 | 246.9 | 245.6 |
| 2012 | 329.8 | 262.4 |
| 2013 | 337.4 | 281.6 |
| 2014 | 342 | 299.8 |
| 2015 | 201.2 | 246.5 |
| 2016 | 220.1 | 219.9 |
| 2017 | 188 | 188.6 |
| 2018 | 151.3 | 152.2 |
| 2019 | 152.2 | |
| 2020 | 130.6 | |
| 2021 | 109.1 |
The forecast was able to predict the drop in Dublin burglaries with a great deal of success. While it failed to predict a slight bump in 2012, it successfully predicted the rates for 2015, 2016, and 2017 to greater than 99% accuracy.
Their predictions for Dublin in 2021 show another dramatic drop, from 152.2 per 100,000 in 2019 down to 109.1 in 2021. Repeating this process for other cities returned similar trends throughout the East Bay, particularly in the Tri-Valley, San Ramon, and Danville, which could be the first city in the East Bay to fall below 100 burglaries per 100k by 2021.
The East Bay Keeps Getting Safer
While it might not always feel like it, the East Bay’s burglary rates have dropped dramatically over the last several years, and they’re not finished yet. Buying or renting property in in the East Bay significantly improves your chances of avoiding a burglary, versus most of the US, making it easier to protect your investment.
Sources:
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crimeintheu.s/2018/crimeintheu.s.2018/tables/table1
http://www.citydata.com/crime/crimeDublinCalifornia.html
http://www.citydata.com/city/LivermoreCalifornia.html
http://www.citydata.com/city/FremontCalifornia.html
http://www.citydata.com/city/UnionCityCalifornia.html
